Assessing the dynasty value of Adrian Peterson

harleywferguson Dynasty, Harley's Post, , , , , , , , , , ,

AP vs the Vikings

“Will he play in Minnesota?”

“Will he play in Dallas?”

“Will he sit out the season in a form of protest?”

All of these questions at some point have been a valid concern for Adrian Peterson owners and those looking to acquire him. Perhaps the biggest overarching question at the heart of these questions is one that is relevant to almost any fantasy situation “is the risk worth the potential reward?” While I cannot speculate on what I feel AP will do or won’t do, this quote from head coach Mike Zimmer shows what the Vikings are saying he WILL NOT do, and that is play for anyone BUT the Vikings: “Adrian really has two choices: He can either play for us or he cannot play,” Zimmer told reporters on Wednesday, via the NFL Network. “He’s not going to play for anyone else, that’s just the way it’s going to be.” So from a fantasy standpoint it’s safe to rule out the possibility of AP playing behind that otherworldly Dallas offensive line. So lets get into the heart of the issue of AP and see just how much he is worth from a fantasy standpoint assuming he plays for the Vikings this season.

AP vs Father Time

The magical age for running backs to start declining is usually around age 30. This has been well documented by fantasy “experts” and even your casual Sunday football viewer. So let’s take a look at one of my favorite notable top rbs and see how his stats were impacted after age 30.

  1. Ladanian Tomlinson(Pre age 30): LT is one of the most electrifying RBs to ever wrap his arms around the ball. He ran his way to a HOF career and was also one of the best pass catching RBs of all time. Prior to 2008 LT never rushed for under 1000 yards, never had less than double-digit touchdowns, never had less than 50 catches and never started less than 15 games. Suffice it to say he was the best fantasy RB to have for many years and it didn’t seem he was going to slow down very much.
  2. Ladanian Tomlinson(Post age 30): Once turning 30, AP never again reached 1000 yards, had 19 touchdowns in 3 years(He had 28 in one season at age 27), and was out of the league in 3 seasons after turning 30. Also in case some wish to shoo away these stats by claiming injury or lack of playing time he started 14 games and only rushed for 730 yards at age 30, and started 13 games the next season and only managed 900 yards and 6 tds. A very steep drop off from his perennial top stats of younger years.

I give the examples above to say this…AP is by far his own worst enemy right now. We simply cannot expect a repeat of his miracle season after his return from the ACL injury to almost break the rushing record. In fact, the very next year when he started 14 games he rushed for 831 less yards, 2 less touchdowns, and caught 11 less passes. While still respectable it must all be put into perspective. If it comes out that AP is going to suit up and play for the vikings, some people will undoubtedly take him in the first round of redraft or as a top 6-7 RB in dynasty start-up drafts and his trade value will be as if he is still the AP that ran for 2097 yards. I say temper those expectations and think back to LT.

What does this all mean?

Well for starters, if you are an AP owner, it may be wise to sell him to a fan of his while the value is still fairly high on name value. If he continues to hold out from OTAs and training camp and practices in the future his value will keep decreasing. Adrian Peterson’s injury history is as already as long as the Nile river(http://bit.ly/1Aysk1P) and his body will only get older and more frail. If I were an AP owner I’d be looking to sell now while his situation still has some mysticism and some still value his name. If I were trying to obtain AP I’d be offering at most a WR2 and a low-end one at that(definitely not a Mike Evans or Deandre Hopkins type of player). In short, Dynasty owners of AP SELL SELL SELL! It would be a fool’s dream to think AP puts up top 7 RB production for anything longer than 2 or 3 years MAX and if you can get a young WR 1 for him or a couple of young RBs for him, do it immediately.

If you have any questions about fantasy advice or this article leave a comment or tweet me @_HarleyF

One thought on “Assessing the dynasty value of Adrian Peterson”

  1. The advantage to having Peterson on your roster if he starts in Minnesota is that he’s likely to be top 5 in RB touches in 2015. The problem with the RB position is there are few “sure things” at the position. Dynasty league or not, there’s nothing wrong with grabbing a RB that could (and should) see 300 touches and feature consistently week in and week out at the top of the position.

    Like

    Reply

Leave a comment